The age of the wheelie-bag - What will travel look like after the pandemic? | Special report - The Economist
The age of the wheelie-bag - What will travel look like after the pandemic? | Special report - The Economist |
- The age of the wheelie-bag - What will travel look like after the pandemic? | Special report - The Economist
- The holiday only just began - Tourism will rebound after the pandemic | Special report - The Economist
- Too soon to book holiday in UK or abroad, says Grant Shapps - The Guardian
- Travel sector angry at Grant Shapps' 'misleading' advice against holidays - The Guardian
| Posted: 11 Feb 2021 07:49 AM PST  Covid-19 has brought international travel to a standstill. But it will recover and may even become a better experience, says Simon Wright Special reportFeb 13th 2021 edition LUGGAGE UNPACKS how international travel has changed down the ages. Adventurers in the 15th-century age of discovery set sail in galleons loaded to the gunwales with supplies for voyages that might take years. Aristocrats on a "grand tour" in the 18th century trekked around Europe for months in horse-drawn carriages packed with trunks, servants and even furniture. The suitcase arrived at the end of the 19th century when spending several weeks abroad became more common for the wealthy. By the 1970s tourists and executives needed to cart the wherewithal for a few nights away through vast airports. And so the wheelie-bag came to symbolise the era of mass travel. The rise of the wheelie-bag reflects the falling cost and increasing speed of long-distance travel. Cheaper air fares, rising incomes and more leisure time have made foreign trips routine and a holiday abroad accessible to many in the rich world wishing to escape their daily stress. Travel brings new experiences and memories (or moments to capture on Instagram). And if not every mind is broadened, surely few suffer the opposite effect. As Mark Twain put it, "Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness." The ease of travel has not just expanded tourism. As companies have spread across the world so have their workers. Business travel keeps multinational companies and supply chains connected. And the ability to get away has let people spread around the world to work, learn or just have a change of scene. As families have dispersed so has the need to keep in touch or attend weddings and birthday parties in foreign parts. It has brought the world together by allowing family and friends to live farther apart. Yet until recently few people went far. Travel was slow, difficult and expensive when it relied on wind or horsepower. Steam and railways opened the gates a little wider. But getting far afield even 100 years ago took an ocean liner or airship, a pricey way to go. A first-class cabin on the Titanic in 1912 started at £30 ($3,500 today); a transatlantic ticket on the Hindenburg cost $400 in 1936 (both one-way, as it later turned out). The big surge in international travel came with flying. A train on the trans-Siberian route from Beijing to Moscow takes over five days; a flight around seven hours. Yet the real game-changer was cheaper fares. In 1950 only 25m people took a trip abroad, says the United Nations World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO). By 2019 the number of trips had grown to 1.5bn (and that excludes migrants, refugees and visits of over a year). Nearly three-fifths of international travellers arrived and departed by plane in 2019, compared with only 5% by sea and 1% by train, according to UNWTO. The 35% of travellers crossing borders in a car were mostly Europeans, inhabitants of the world's largest travel market, taking advantage of their continent's small size and good roads. Going on holiday is the main motive for travel abroad, accounting for 55% of trips. Business travel made up 11% of the total. Most of the rest was to visit families and friends abroad. Some travel for religious reasons (2m Muslims visit Mecca every year); and around 15m sought medical treatment in 2017. International travellers have filled tills for hotels, restaurants, car-hire firms and tour operators. Their spending hit $1.5trn in 2019. Before covid-19, travel contributed 4.4% of GDP and 6.9% of employment in the OECD rich-country club. International travel made up 6.5% of global exports in 2019, according to the World Trade Organisation. In all, travel and tourism accounts for over 330m jobs, one in ten of the world's total, claims the World Travel and Tourism Council (WTTC).  Covid-19 has devastated an industry that relies on the freedom of people to move. International travel stopped almost completely between March and May 2020, as four-fifths of countries closed their borders. Forbidden or unable to get around, travellers have stayed put. International arrivals fell by 70-75% in 2020, estimates the UNWTO, with 1bn fewer travellers and $1.1bn less spending (see chart). That is ten times the shortfall in travel spending in 2009 after the financial crisis. And recovery looks far off, even with effective vaccines. The OECD predicts that tourism will be among the "last sectors of the economy to…recover lost demand". It is not all dark clouds, however. Greenhouse-gas emissions by commercial jets plunged in 2020, intensifying debate about how to curtail this pollution permanently. Destinations blighted by overtourism have had a break. And optimists reckon that in the long run the link between growing wealth and the urge to travel will remain unbroken. This report will argue that, for all its high short-term costs, the pandemic may accelerate trends that will eventually make travel both easier and less damaging. Today's travel industry may have taken a battering—but the new one that emerges could be better than ever.■ The future of travel Return of the wanderer This article appeared in the Special report section of the print edition under the headline "The age of the wheelie-bag" |
| Posted: 11 Feb 2021 07:49 AM PST IT IS AN unfortunate fact that the ease of throwing things into a wheelie-bag and travelling far and wide helped spread covid-19 around the world. The effects on leisure travel and destinations that rely on tourism will be felt for years to come. But just as the way we travel may improve as a result, so the chance for countries to rethink tourism industries could turn a bruised and battered industry into a better one. The pursuit of pleasure using cultural pursuits as cover goes back to the days of the grand tourists, who trawled Europe's artistic heritage as well as indulging in more hedonistic activities. As souvenirs they returned with paintings, sculptures and sometimes syphilis. Travel was hard and expensive. The earl of Salisbury spent the equivalent of nearly £500,000 today on his grand tour in the 18th century, according to MBNA, a credit-card firm. Even 50 years ago foreign travel was a luxury pursuit. In 1970 a return flight from New York to London cost around $500 (equivalent to $3,500 today). Lower fares and the rise of the internet have made holidays cheaper and easier to arrange. Airlines, hotel chains, car-hire firms and other businesses have moved online. Dedicated internet travel agents like Expedia and Booking.com have emerged. Online peer-to-peer review sites offer a mostly honest assessment of hotels, restaurants and tourist sites. Airbnb and its competitors have created a new class of accommodation. The frictional costs of travel have fallen sharply.  Such is the stunning growth of tourism that the 72% decline in trips in the first ten months of 2020 on a year earlier merely took international travel back to where it was in 1990. Leisure travel accounts for the biggest slice but the rest contributes too. Business travellers stay in hotels, eat at restaurants and hire cars. Some visits to relatives or friends may be barely distinguishable from a holiday. Not only are there more trips, but the world is a bigger oyster. In 1950 the top 15 destinations—with America, France, Italy and Spain the most visited—claimed 97% of tourist arrivals. By 2015 that share had dropped to just over half. Europe, with it historic cities, countryside and beaches, still rules, taking just over half of all international travellers. That is twice the share of the Asia-Pacific region, the next most popular area. Europe rakes in the most receipts, around 37% of the global total, worth some $619bn in 2019. France and Spain are the most popular countries for a visit. The top spots may not have changed, but their arrivals have. Chinese visits overseas have grown from just 9m trips in 1999 to 150m in 2018. Travellers' preference for richer countries has created large industries. Spain relied on domestic and foreign visitors for 11.8% of GDP in 2019, France 7.4% and Mexico 8.7%. Poorer countries lean even more on tourist dollars. America is the biggest country for travel spending, some $1.8trn in 2019, but overseas visitors have put tourism at the heart of many economies. In Aruba it accounts for nearly three-quarters of GDP; in most other small Caribbean islands it is also the main economic activity. Other poorer countries are less reliant overall but have vast tourist industries. Thailand welcomed around 10m foreign tourists in 2001. By 2019 it had grown fourfold (with a quarter of the total coming from China), bringing in 1.9trn baht ($60bn) and contributing some 18% of GDP. The emptying of tourist trails and resorts resembling ghost towns is causing massive upheaval. UNCTAD estimated that losses could amount to 2.8% of world output if international arrivals dropped by 66% in 2020. The OECD now reckons that the drop was more like 80%. And the expectation is that international arrivals will probably not recover to pre-covid levels until 2023. Tourism is a resilient industry. But it faces a downturn like no other. Firms reliant on visitors may not be best placed to survive. According to the WTCC, around 80% of tourist businesses worldwide, from hotels to restaurants to tour guides, are small businesses. Large hotel chains may have the balance-sheets to weather the storm or the management skills to reconfigure their business to cater more to domestic travellers. Small businesses probably lack the cash to invest in equipment for contactless payments or better cleaning and hygiene to reassure returning tourists. The uncertain path to recovery raises questions over what will remain. The UNWTO reckons that countries with a big share of domestic tourism—America, China and India have the largest home markets—will recover more quickly. Travel restrictions have kept China's high-rollers at home, giving its fanciest hotels their best year ever. But even domestic tourism is far from a saviour. Britain and Spain, for example, reckon on a decrease in domestic tourism of 45-50% in 2020. These problems have prompted various responses to keep businesses alive. Some countries such as France, which launched an $18bn bail-out in May, have aimed cash directly at tourist businesses. Others are trying to reassure tourists that their countries are safe by developing protocols and guidelines for tourism workers. LuÃs Araújo, president of the Portuguese National Tourism Authority, says his organisation has arranged training for 60,000 workers at restaurants, hotels and travel agents to create a safer travel experience. Finland and Greece are among countries with new training programmes aimed at improving the digital presence of tourist businesses. Some parts of the tourist economy will do better than others. Travel firms have noted a rising preference for self-catering and private accommodation over hotels. Coastal and rural locations, far from crowds, will recover faster than cities. Cyril Ranque of Expedia notes that his customers are more inclined to drive to domestic locations but then to stay longer than before. But these trends, he believes, are "all temporary". Waiting for the reboundThe travel bug seems certain to outlast the virus. Its first manifestation may be "revenge tourism" as people get away after a year of lockdowns and quarantines. But some things will change for good. A preoccupation in previous centuries, health and hygiene will re-emerge as central to holiday planning. Guidebooks from Baedeker, a German publisher, were never reticent about warning travellers of the filth they faced in foreign climes even in the early 20th century, bemoaning the "evil sanitary reputation of Naples". Destinations will continue to boast of their scenery, cuisine and beaches but safety and hygiene will become as important, says Ian Yeoman, a tourism academic at Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand. This may benefit longer-established destinations, tilting visitors away from poorer countries. Those countries will not be deliberately trying to avoid tourists, even so. Some remote places have used the hiatus to build a better online presence, says Mr Ranque. He points to other innovations to make travel less of a bother. Flexibility, to cope with last-minute changes of plans, will endure. Late or even last-minute bookings are more common. Josh Belkin of Hotels.com reports that, because people are taking more staycations and travelling by car rather than plane, they are booking hotels later, on average 13 days before a trip rather than the 20 before covid-19. Many travel companies and airlines have introduced more flexible rebooking policies. Faced by a wave of cancellations as covid-19 took hold, Expedia introduced "one-click cancellation" to deal with all elements from flights and hotels to car hire. Firms that use its platform can deploy new tools to add special offers to listings to encourage last-minute bookers and manage refunds. Gathering real-time data on searches, and sharing them with businesses that relied on information from previous years to set prices, could also lead to a better match between supply and demand and encourage more dynamic pricing. In future, personalised customer data should allow travel firms to recommend holidays in a more focused way. Covid-19 presents a "once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to move towards more sustainable and resilient models of tourism development", says the OECD. "Tourism was seen as unambiguously good 20 years ago...now it's a double-edged sword," says Paul Flatters of the Trajectory Partnership. Concerns about the impact of tourism on the environment predate the pandemic. But tourism also broadens awareness of different cultures and environmental issues and helps pay for wildlife conservation, as well as providing employment and economic development. Many destinations failed to strike a balance between tourist numbers and local sensibilities. Venetians have long protested against vast cruise ships, prompting some firms to drop the city from their itineraries. Venice also plans to impose a levy on all visitors from 2022. Anti-tourist slogans daubed on walls have greeted visitors to Barcelona, which has clamped down on illegal holiday letting (as have Berlin and other places in which holiday lets have replaced rental properties, forcing up prices for residents). Amsterdam is considering a ban on non-residents buying cannabis in its notorious coffee shops, to encourage a better class of tourist. Machu Picchu, where trails were overrun, imposed a pre-covid limit of 5,000 visitors a day. That will be cut to 675 to ensure social distancing. Covid-19 offers the chance not only to reset tourism to reduce the numbers who spend the least but also to spread them out. Barcelona has run a campaign to encourage people to venture away from the old city. Thailand has a scheme to promote 55 less visited parts of the country. Concentrating on attracting fewer tourists ready to spend more is one way to promote a healthier business. And sustainability may become a more important guide to choices as awareness of climate change and the less welcome effects of tourism grow. Getting the right balance between economic, environmental and social benefits and costs has seen a new emphasis on sustainability. Mexico thinks covid-19 will help with its "Mexico Reborn Sustainable" campaign, which aims in part to create new routes that spread tourist dollars more widely and promote destinations that tap into fast-growing nature tourism. A dynamic tourism economy depends on the availability of a variety of services, from accommodation and good services to attractions, activities and events. Whether a critical mass of services will remain everywhere is less clear. Less choice and competition, if businesses go bust, may mean higher prices. The rapid growth of tourist economies in recent years suggests they can be rebuilt swiftly. But for all those governments that redesign their tourism strategies to keep down crowds and protect the environment, others may compete by racing to the bottom, using deep discounts to fill hotels and planes. Tourist numbers will recover and continue to grow either way. Greater efforts to manage them carefully should make for a better experience for everyone.■ The future of travel Return of the wanderer This article appeared in the Special report section of the print edition under the headline "The holiday only just began" |
| Too soon to book holiday in UK or abroad, says Grant Shapps - The Guardian Posted: 10 Feb 2021 03:21 AM PST The transport secretary has told people in Britain not to book holidays domestically or abroad, provoking an immediate backlash from the UK's embattled travel industry. "People shouldn't be booking holidays right now – not domestically or internationally," Grant Shapps told BBC Radio 4's Today programme. It was too soon, he added. However, the travel industry on Wednesday appeared to contradict Shapps, saying that some package holiday customers could rely on refunds if the Foreign Office banned non-essential travel to holiday destinations. A spokesperson for the Association of British Travel Agents said: "You can book a summer holiday now with confidence by booking a package holiday through an Abta member, and many travel companies are also offering additional flexibility to take into account the uncertainty created by the pandemic." Domestic and international travel companies have pinned their hopes for recovery on a return to something like normal service over the summer as the coronavirus vaccination programme allows people within the UK to emerge from national lockdowns. Holidays are banned under lockdown rules in England. Shapps said Boris Johnson would lay out on 22 February how the UK plans to lift lockdown restrictions but said it was not clear that holidays would be included in those plans because of uncertainty over the development of vaccinations and pressures on the health service. International holidaymakers face the added complication of potential quarantines on arrival from some countries, amid concerns about the possibility of vaccine-resistant variants of Covid-19. The government has said that arrivals in the UK who lie about their travel history will be liable for prison sentences of up to 10 years, although the plans have been criticised as being heavy-handed. Easing of restrictions on international holidays would be influenced by "not just the vaccination programme here but the vaccination programme internationally, because people will be going outside of our borders", Shapps said. Abta said the industry could not afford to lose another summer by waiting for the rollout of vaccinations. The lobby group instead called for the government to consider vaccine certificates, often labelled "vaccine passports", as well as testing. It also called for more financial support specifically for travel businesses. Guardian business email sign-up Some travel companies have reported increased bookings from customers hoping to secure a deal, and, in many cases, leave the UK for the first time since March 2020 or earlier. Ryanair's chief executive, Michael O'Leary, said on Wednesday that he was "optimistic that people will be allowed to travel from May onwards". Last week regulators banned an advertising campaign by Ryanair that said customers could "jab and go" this summer. The advertising regulator said it encouraged risk-taking. However, O'Leary said losing another summer could result in travel company bankruptcies. "Many companies will not see their way through next winter if we go through a second summer of no bookings," he told the BBC. Johan Lundgren, easyJet's chief executive, said on Wednesday that the UK government must set out its plans on easing restrictions on international travel. The airline said last month that between January and March it planned to fly only 10% of the flights it operated during the same period before the pandemic, a reduction from the 18% of capacity used in the last three months of 2020. "I'm positive for a strong summer if the vaccination programmes are successful, if it works on the variants … then we know that there's a big urgent need for the government to unwind these restrictions," Lundgren told an online aviation conference. On Tuesday, the Anglo-German tour operator Tui said it expected a return to international holiday travel this summer. Tui has put on 80% of its 2019 summer holiday programme for 2021, with Greece and Spain the most popular destinations. Those two countries are significantly behind the UK in terms of the proportion of people vaccinated. |
| Posted: 10 Feb 2021 09:09 AM PST The much-anticipated great British summer may have been greatly exaggerated, if comments made on Wednesday by transport secretary Grant Shapps are anything to go by. Just weeks after cabinet colleague Matt Hancock suggested that 2021 would be a bumper year for British holidays, and revealed he'd booked his own in Cornwall, Shapps advised against booking any sort of trip, in the UK or abroad. Speaking on Radio 4's Today programme, he said: "On the shrinking chance that there is anybody listening to this interview at this stage, and thinking of booking a holiday under the current circumstances … please don't go ahead and book holidays for something which, at this stage, is illegal to actually go and do, whether it's here or abroad." His comments have angered the travel industry, which is fighting for its survival. The Country Land and Business Association (CLA), which represents 5,000 rural tourism businesses, said many of its members face ruin. The CLA's director of external affairs Jonathan Roberts added that 300,000 jobs were at risk. "Government has been telling us we can look forward to a great British summer, but now says we mustn't book any holidays at all," he said. "This mixed messaging risks confusing members of the public and damaging rural tourism businesses, which are in dire need of some good news." Visit Cornwall chief executive Malcolm Bell said the remarks were misleading and would frighten both holidaymakers and people working in the tourism sector. "I understand [Shapps] is trying to make people aware that things may change, but there is no reason you shouldn't book. Many hotels and self-catering businesses are offering free 30-day cancellation. "I'm disappointed that a cabinet minister could be putting businesses under even more mental stress. At the moment, at least bookings are giving owners and staff hope for the future. [Shapps' comments are] not doing much for people's wellbeing at home either. Lots of people are planning trips to reconnect with family. Don't tell people they can't unless there is clear evidence for it." Tens of thousands of holidaymakers have already booked a summer escape in the UK. Cottage companies say bookings are at an all-time high. The pattern of overseas bookings is more mixed, with Thomas Cook saying customers are booking from October onwards but others – including the UK's biggest tour operator, Tui –reporting relatively strong demand for the summer. On Tuesday, Tui said it had taken 2.8 million bookings for summer 2021, with the average price of a holiday 20% up on 2019. "The scope for consumer spending is high. The significant increase in spending on booked travel reflects this very clearly. Holidaymakers are catching up and are willing to pay more for their holidays," said CEO Fritz Joussen. Shapps refused to be drawn on when people might expect to be able to travel. "I simply don't know the answer to the question of where we'll be up to this summer; it's too early to be able to give you that information. You would want to wait until that's clear before booking anything. So the best advice to people is do nothing at this stage." Noel Josephides, chairman of Sunvil, which has been selling holidays for 48 years, said the comments risk causing the collapse of the UK travel sector. He said the prime minister's announcement on 22 February had to lay out a roadmap "or he'll face the collapse of an £80bn industry. Everyone's running out of cash." He added: "What people have to understand is that if they book a package and pay a deposit, they are not going to lose that money." Abta, the Travel Association, also reassured people that package holiday bookings are legally protected under the package holiday regulations. "You can book a summer holiday now with confidence through an Abta member, and many travel companies are also offering additional flexibility to take into account the uncertainty created by the pandemic." Shapps' insistence that it's too early to plan holidays also undermines hopes that the vaccination programme will lead to a resumption of international travel. Many tour operators are pinning hopes on travel picking up from early summer, when most over-50s will have been vaccinated. Paul Charles of the PC Agency tweeted: "The government promised that vaccines would enable a return to some normality, such as a holiday. Now they are saying that may not be possible."
|
| You are subscribed to email updates from "international-tour-packages,foreign-tour-packages" - Google News. To stop receiving these emails, you may unsubscribe now. | Email delivery powered by Google |
| Google, 1600 Amphitheatre Parkway, Mountain View, CA 94043, United States | |
Comments
Post a Comment